Atmospheric News
NASA Survey finds Polar Ice Sheets Shrinking
In the most comprehensive survey ever undertaken of the massive ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica, NASA scientists confirm climate warming is changing how much water remains locked in Earth's largest storehouses of ice and snow.
NASA says the survey is the first to inventory the losses of ice and the addition of new snow on both in a consistent and comprehensive way for a decade.
The survey shows the combined polar ice sheets had a net loss of ice between 1992 and 2002 with a corresponding rise in sea level. The survey documented for the first time extensive thinning of the West Antarctic ice shelves, an increase in snowfall in the interior of Greenland and thinning at the edges of Greenland’s ice sheet. All are signs of a warming climate computer models have predicted.
The survey combines new satellite mapping of the height of the ice sheets from two European Space Agency satellites. It also uses previous NASA airborne mapping of the edges of Greenland’s ice sheet to determine how fast its thickness is changing. Researchers used nine years of elevation mapping over much of Antarctica and 10.5 years of data over Greenland from the European Remote-sensing Satellites 1 and 2. The survey pinpoints where the ice sheets were thinning and where they were growing.
The survey saw large ice losses along Greenland’s southeastern coast and a large increase in ice thickness at higher elevations in the interior due to relatively high rates of snowfall. This study suggests a slight gain in the total mass of frozen water in the ice sheet over the decade studied, contrary to previous assessments.
The situation was very different in Antarctica. The ice sheets had a major net loss of ice due to outflow from West Antarctica. These losses, which may have been going on for decades, outweighed the gains in snow and ice seen in the East Antarctic ice sheet and parts of West Antarctica. Also thinning were the ice shelves around West Antarctica, where temperatures have been increasing. The floating ice shelves are vulnerable to climate change. Some ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula have totally disintegrated in recent years, allowing the ice from the land to move into the ocean faster.
When the scientists added up the gains and losses of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic sheets, they found a net loss of ice to the sea. The Greenland ice sheet annually gained approximately 11 billion tons of water, while Antarctica lost about 31 billion tons per year. The 20 billion net tons added to the oceans is equivalent to the amount of fresh water annually used in homes, businesses and farming in New York, New Jersey and Virginia.
The survey was published in the March 2006 Journal of Glaciology.
For more information about the research and images on the Web, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/ice_sheets.html
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Arctic, Antarctic Melting May Raise Sea Levels Faster than Expected
Ice sheets across both the Arctic and Antarctic could melt more quickly than expected this century, two studies that blend computer modeling with paleoclimate records have found. The studies, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Arizona, show that Arctic summers by 2100 may be as warm as they were nearly 130,000 years ago, when sea levels eventually rose up to 20 feet (6 meters) higher than today.
Bette Otto-Bliesner (NCAR) and Jonathan Overpeck (University of Arizona) report on their new work in two papers appearing in the March 24 issue of Science. The study also involved researchers from the universities of Calgary and Colorado, the U.S. Geological Survey, and The Pennsylvania State University.
Otto-Bliesner and Overpeck base their findings on data from ancient coral reefs, ice cores, and other natural climate records, as well as output from the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a powerful tool for simulating past, present, and future climates.
The two studies show that greenhouse gas increases over the next century could warm the Arctic by 5-8°F (3-5°C) in summertime. This is roughly as warm as it was 130,000 years ago, between the most recent ice age and the previous one. The warm Arctic summers during the last interglacial period were caused by changes in Earth's tilt and orbit. The CCSM accurately captured that warming, which is mirrored in data from paleoclimate records. Although simulation results depend on the assumptions and conditions within different models, estimates of warming from the CCSM are within the range projected by other climate models, according to the authors.
These studies are the first to link Arctic and Antarctic melting in the last interglacial period. Marine diatoms and beryllium isotopes found beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet indicate that parts of the ice disappeared at some point over the last several hundred thousand years.
For more see http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/melting.shtml
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NOAA Spring Outlook Focuses on Drought and Wildfire Concerns
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s spring outlook calls for increased drought and wildfire danger across much of the Southwest and central and southern Plains. NOAA released the seasonal outlook on March 16 in partnership with the National Interagency Fire Center.
As of March 13, nearly unprecedented dry weather, unseasonably high temperatures, and gusty winds had already contributed to more than 13,000 wildfires, scorching in excess of 930,000 acres nationally since January 1, mainly in Texas and Oklahoma, the agency said. This is well above the five-year average of 6,363 wildfires and 98,476 acres burned.
In the southern Plains, the drought has had a major impact on farmers and ranchers. The lack of rain has dried up many stock ponds and led to abysmal pasture, range, and winter wheat crop conditions, especially in Texas and Oklahoma.
Currently, severe to extreme drought extends across the Southwest into the southern Plains and north into Kansas. The U.S. Drought Monitor gives its highest drought rating, D4 (exceptional), to portions of southern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Heavy rains including severe thunderstorms have eased short-term drought in Illinois, Iowa, and southward into Arkansas, but ongoing drought concerns may linger. The recent heavy rains and flooding ended dryness concerns over most of Hawaii.
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for dry conditions persisting through June in the Southwest and the southern and central Plains, despite temporary improvement in some areas. Also, drought is expected to expand in Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some drought improvement is predicted for areas in the northern Rockies and northern Plains, as well as the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains. Drought is expected to continue in North Carolina and possibly expand into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
For the nation as a whole, the U.S. Spring Outlook for April through June indicates below-normal precipitation for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region as well as Hawaii. The remainder of the country, including Alaska, has equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation.
Meanwhile, forecasters expect above normal temperatures [ for the Southwest eastward into the Southeast and the northwest islands of Hawaii; below normal temperatures are likely for the northern Plains, northern Rockies and Washington State. Western Alaska and the panhandle may see above-normal temperatures. The remainder of the country has equal chances of above, near or below normal temperature.
An equal chance, either for temperature or precipitation, is predicted when there are no reliable and skillful signals on which to base the seasonal outlook.
For more details see Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
National Interagency Fire Center: http://www.nifc.gov
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UCAR Educator/Scientist Named Executive Director of National Earth Science Teachers Association
Roberta Johnson, director of Education and Outreach at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), has been named executive director of the National Earth Science Teachers Association (NESTA). Her voluntary appointment begins on April 6. Johnson will continue in her position at UCAR.
NESTA is a nonprofit educational organization that works to advance and improve Earth science education at all levels. The organization, which has nearly 1,000 members, provides classroom resources and support for educators, participates in professional meetings, publishes a quarterly journal, and more.
Johnson has been at UCAR since 2000. She serves on numerous advisory boards for projects in science education, outreach, and diversity, and has extensive experience advising NASA, the National Science Foundation, and a variety of professional societies. She has been an active member of the National Science Teachers Association, with which NESTA is formally associated, since 1996.
As executive director of NESTA, Johnson will focus on supporting the needs of members, implementing new programs to provide opportunities for in-service professional development, linking classroom teachers to advances in geoscience research, and planning for the future of K-12 geoscience education.
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Construction Begins on New NOAA Weather & Climate Prediction Center
Construction for the new NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction began last month at the University of Maryland.
The 268,762 square-foot office and research complex will become the new home for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service, Air Resources Laboratory and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, an office of the National Weather Service. Approximately 800 people will work in the facility.
Virtually all the meteorological data collected globally will arrive at the center. Environmental scientists will analyze this information and generate a wide variety of atmospheric and oceanic forecasts and guidance products using sophisticated numerical weather and climate prediction models.
This structure includes features that demonstrate environmental sensitivities, such as its “green roof” and rainwater waterfall, and both the site and building design will achieve the U.S. Green Building Council LEED Silver Certification. The facility will be completed in late fall 2007, with full occupancy in February 2008.
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NOAA Dedicates Hurricane-Resistant Key West Weather Forecast Office
The National Weather Service recently dedicated its new, hurricane-resistant weather forecast office in Key West, Fla. The new facility is designed to withstand wind speeds and storm surge levels associated with a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.
The office proved itself early in the morning of October 23, 2005, as the eye of Hurricane Wilma passed just 70 miles north of the Keys at Category 3 intensity. While worse could happen, Wilma battered Key West with wind gusts in excess of 100 mph and a six-foot storm surge. However, office staff, family members and key emergency management personnel were safely sheltered in the new building.
Constructed with a combination of concrete, reinforcing steel and hurricane impact-resistant glass, the new facility was built to withstand sustained winds of 165 mph. The interior contains an additional concrete structure designed to serve as a Severe Weather Occupancy Shelter to protect against winds up to 250 mph.
The new facility is located approximately a half-mile from shore and six-and-a-half feet above sea level. The interior floors are an additional seven feet above the grade for a combined height of 13.5 feet above sea level, which is 2.5 feet above the anticipated storm surge there of a Category 5 hurricane.
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NOAA Awards Contract for Geostationary Lightning Mapper
NOAA and NASA have awarded Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company Advanced Technology Center, of Palo Alto, Calif., Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corporation, of Broomfield, Colo., and ITT Industries Space Systems Division, of Fort Wayne, Indiana, each a $2 million dollar contract for the formulation phase for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The GLM is a key instrument of the next generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, called GOES-R.
The National Weather Service estimates that lightning strikes within the United States an average of 25 million times each year, killing an average of 67 people and causing property losses, damage to aircraft and electronics, and starting wildfires. The GLM will provide information needed to develop improved forecasts.
The GLM consists of an optical system, high speed optical pulse detectors and processing electronics, which will provide real-time measurement of lightning over all of the Earth in the satellite’s view. The GLM will also detect individual lightning pulses and provide: the location of lightning flashes, continuous lightning measurements for thunderstorm and tornado warnings, issued by the National Weather Service, and accumulate a long-term database to determine decadal changes in lightning activity.
This 12-month contract is an attempt to identify risk reduction efforts before specifying final performance requirements for the implementation phase later. NOAA manages the GOES program and establishes the requirements, provides funding and distributes environmental data for the United States. NASA procures and manages the acquisition of GOES for NOAA.
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AMS Fellow James O’Brien Wins Award from Florida Academy of Sciences
SThe Florida Academy of sciences has awarded James J. O’Brien its 2006 Medalist Award. He is the State of Florida climatologist, a Florida State University Professor, and an AMS Fellow . The Academy presents the award each year to a Florida resident who has contributed in an outstanding manner to the promotion of scientific research, to the stimulation of interest in the sciences, or to the diffusion of scientific knowledge.
Perhaps best known for his early, basic research into El Niño, O'Brien is FSU's Distinguished Robert O. Lawton Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography and the director of its Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS).
A member of the FSU faculty for more than 35 years, he has earned myriad accolades at home and abroad, including a citation as one of the "2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century." Among his numerous scientific and professional affiliations, O'Brien is a Fellow in the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the American Geophysical Union; a Foreign Fellow in the Russian Academy of Science; and a member of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters.
Recently, the Japanese Oceanographic Society (JOS) selected him as a recipient of its 2006 "Uda Prize" in recognition of his education and support of young people from Japan. O'Brien is the first non-Japanese scientist to receive the prize, which he'll claim in person March 28 during the JOS spring meeting in Yokohama.
For more information see: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu
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Former Dallas Morning News Science Editor Wins AGU Award for Achievement in Science Journalism
Tom Siegfried, freelance writer and former science editor of the Dallas Morning News, has been named winner of the Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism. The award is presented by the American Geophysical Union to "an individual who has made significant, consistent, and lasting contributions of high quality in science journalism, particularly in the coverage of subjects related to the Earth and space sciences."
In selecting Siegfried, AGU recognized above all his tenure at the Dallas Morning News (1985-2004), where he created and nurtured one of the most respected science departments of any U.S. newspaper. He wrote over 900 weekly columns on aspects of science and its role in society, demonstrating a broad knowledge of diverse scientific fields. His column now appears every second week in The Why Files, an online science publication of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Siegfried is the author of two books, The Bit and the Pendulum (Wiley, 2000)and Strange Matters (John Henry, 2002). A third book is due later this year. He has already won numerous awards, including the Science-in-Society Award of the National Association of Science Writers and the Grady-Stack Award of the American Chemical Society.
The Robert C. Cowen Award for Sustained Achievement in Science Journalism is named for the distinguished former science editor of the Christian Science Monitor, now a freelance writer and active volunteer participant in AGU committees. The award is presented at intervals of two years or more. Previous winners of the sustained achievement award were Richard Kerr, Science (1993); David Perlman, San Francisco Chronicle (1997); Robert Cowen (2001--the year the previous AGU Award was renamed in his honor); and Paula Apsell, NOVA (2004).
For more see: http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/prrl/prrl0604.html)
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NCAR Associate Director Loses Battle to Cancer
Diana H. Josephson, known for her vision in revitalizing organizations ranging from government agencies to nonprofits, died on Monday March 6, at her home in Boulder, Colorado, from complications of cancer. She was 69. Josephson spent much of her career in the Washington, D.C., area, beginning in 1959. Her career spanned over forty years in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Navy, Environmental Defense, and other public and private institutions. At her death, Josephson was one of five associate directors of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and head of NCAR's Societal and Environmental Research Laboratory.
Josephson was born in London, England, and began her career as a lawyer, holding degrees from Oxford and George Washington Universities and being a member of the bar of both the United Kingdom and the United States. In 1968 she joined the Washington, D.C., city government, first coordinating youth programs citywide and later overseeing programs run by 22 agencies and setting up a process by which citizens could participate in the budgeting process. After running the American Civil Liberties Union for the National Capital Area for three years, she joined the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 1978, where she managed the weather satellite service and the commercialization of the Landsat satellite system through 1982.
After a number of positions in the aerospace industry, Josephson rejoined NOAA as Chief Operating Officer and Deputy Undersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere from 1993 to 1997, during the modernization of the National Weather Service, spearheading development of a $2 billion annual budget and developing NOAA's first strategic plan. Her contributions led to major improvements in climate forecasting and earned her a NOAA Special Recognition Award for lifetime service.
In 1997 she moved to the U.S. Navy as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Installations and Environments, a position that gave her status equivalent to a three-star admiral and allowed her to be recognized as such aboard naval vessels. Among her duties was finding an environmentally friendly way to dispose of napalm left from the Vietnam War. Her contributions at the Navy garnered her the Distinguished Public Service Award, the Navy's highest civilian honor.
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