Atmospheric News
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NOAA'S Jack Hayes Wins Presidential Rank Award
Jack Hayes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Deputy Assistant Administrator for Ocean and Coastal Zone Management for the National Ocean Service has received the Presidential Rank Award for his exceptional contributions to improving weather systems.
Hayes was cited for his work during his tenure as director of the Office of Science and Technology at NOAA's National Weather Service. Among numerous other accomplishments, under his leadership he improved every important aspect of the Weather Service forecast and warning operations. His decision to select a non-standard operating system improved tornado detection, warning performance parameters and system performance capabilities, potentially saving lives and generating annual savings of billions of dollars in resource protection.
The Presidential Rank Award is a prestigious award given to a select group of senior federal executives who have provided exceptional service to the American people.
"NOAA is proud to have Jack recognized for his outstanding work," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "This award is a fitting recognition of the impact of Jack's work and exemplifies NOAA's commitment to serving the nation's weather needs."
In his current position with the Ocean Service, Hayes is responsible for the execution of program missions in operational oceanography and marine area management. These ocean programs represent a diversity ranging from physical oceanography and the measurement of tides and water levels, hydrographic surveying, geodesy, and coastal and ocean management through marine protected areas, National Marine Sanctuaries, and the management of the nation's coastal zone.
"Jack is most deserving of this award for his work with the National Weather Service," said Assistant Administrator of the National Ocean Service, Richard W. Spinrad, Ph.D. "We are fortunate to have someone with his skills and experience join our team. He brings a wealth of scientific and institutional knowledge to the National Ocean Service."
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through research to better understand atmospheric and climate variability and to manage wisely our nation's coastal and marine resources
On the Web: NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
President Nominates Michael D. Griffin to Head NASA
The President has nominated Michael D. Griffin, of Virginia, to be Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Dr. Griffin currently serves as Space Department Head at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Prior to that, he was President and Chief Operating Officer of In-Q-Tel, Inc. He also served in several positions within Orbital Sciences Corporation, including Chief Executive Officer of Magellan Systems, Inc.
Earlier in his career, Dr. Griffin served as Chief Engineer at NASA and as Deputy for Technology at the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization. He received a bachelor's degree in Physics from Johns Hopkins University; a master's degree in Aerospace Science from Catholic University of America; a Ph.D. in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Maryland; a master's degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Southern California; a master's degree in Applied Physics from Johns Hopkins University; a master's degree in Business Administration from Loyola College; and a master's degree in Civil Engineering from The George Washington University.
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NOAA Issues Spring 2005 Outlook
As a result of one of the wettest winters on record, drought conditions in the Southwest and the Colorado River Basin have eased a bit, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Spring outlook issued on 17 March.
Short-term drought concerns have been alleviated in many areas of the Southwest especially southern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Preliminary data show the Southwest had its wettest September-February in 110 years of record keeping. Abundant snowpack in the upper Colorado River Basin is resulting in above-normal inflow to the region's reservoirs. However, with reservoir storages at 17 percent capacity in Nevada and 29 percent capacity in New Mexico, local water supply problems are still possible.
The unusual southward shift in the winter storm track that helped the Southwest has resulted in deficient rain and snow to the north. Moderate to severe drought developed over the winter in portions of the Pacific Northwest. Some mountain observation sites in Idaho, Montana, and Washington were without snow in early March for the first time in over 30 years. Long-term drought has continued in the northern Rockies and the upper Missouri River Basin.
NOAA’s El Niño experts expect the currently weak El Niño conditions to continue to fade with a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during the spring. Neither El Niño nor La Niña will be an influencing factor in weather and climate patterns across the U.S. this season.
The seasonal outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in parts of the West, Southwest, the mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Alaska, and Hawaii. Parts of the western Great Lakes and the southern Plains are expected to be cooler-than-normal. Above-normal precipitation is expected in parts of the western Great Lakes, southern Plains, and most of Alaska, with drier-than-normal conditions expected in Hawaii and parts of Florida and California.
For complete details see http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2406.htm
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Scientists Find Historically High Tsunami Risk in Caribbean
The potential for devastating tsunamis in the northern Caribbean is high, say marine scientists, based on their analysis of historical data since the arrival of Columbus. Several natural phenomena could trigger giant tsunamis, they say, with effects felt in the islands of the Greater and Lesser Antilles and along the east and Gulf coasts of the United States.
Nancy Grindlay and Meghan Hearne of the University of North Carolina Wilmington and Paul Mann of the University of Texas at Austin focus on one major source of past tsunamis in the region: movement along the boundary between the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates.
Writing in the March 22 issue of Eos, the newspaper of the American Geophysical Union, they say that at least 10 significant tsunamis have been documented in the northern Caribbean since 1492, six of which are known to have resulted in loss of life. All 10 were triggered by movement along this plate boundary, which lies along the north coast of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and extends some 3,200 kilometers [2,000 miles] from Central America to the Lesser Antilles.
The researchers estimate that with increased populations, especially in coastal areas, some 35.5 million people are now at risk should another strong tsunami hit the northern Caribbean. They note that in addition to their own studies of fault lines along the North American and Caribbean plate boundary, other researchers have studied the risk to the northern Caribbean from submarine landslides, both in the region and as far away as the Canary Islands. In the pre-1492 period, tsunamis greater than any in the past 500 years may have occurred, the scientists say, based on their study of underwater landslides off the north coast of Puerto Rico.
The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the University of Puerto Rico SeaGrant program.
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Two NCAR Scientists Named Leopold Leadership Fellows
The Aldo Leopold Leadership Program announced today that two scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Elisabeth Holland and Susanne Moser, have been named 2005 Leopold Leadership Fellows.
As fellows, Holland and Moser are part of a group of 20 environmental scientists from academic and research organizations around the country who were selected through a competitive application process. Based at the Stanford Institute for the Environment, the program provides the fellows with intensive communications and leadership training to enhance their ability to communicate complex scientific information to nonscientific audiences, especially policy makers, the media, business leaders, and the public.
Holland is a biogeochemist in NCAR's Atmospheric Chemistry Division who studies the link between the chemistry of the atmosphere and ecosystems on Earth. She brings a biological perspective to geophysics and atmospheric research. Her recent work includes a study of nitrogen pollution in the United States and Europe.
Moser is an expert on the human dimensions of global change. Her work in NCAR's Institute for the Study of Society and Environment focuses on climate change impacts on coastal systems and human health, society's response to environmental change, and the interaction between scientists and decision makers. She is the co-editor of a forthcoming book on effective communication about climate change.
The Aldo Leopold Leadership Program was launched in 1998 and is named for Aldo Leopold, a renowned environmental scientist who communicated his scientific knowledge simply and eloquently. His writings, including his 1949 book, A Sand County Almanac , are credited with infusing the emerging conservation movement with good science and a stewardship ethic
For more on the program see http://www.leopoldleadership.org/content/
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This Winter Was 10th Warmest on Record
The United States experienced its tenth warmest winter on record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Nationwide, temperatures from December 2004 - February 2005 were much above normal, as drier-than-average conditions persisted in the Northwest and heavy precipitation affected the Southwest. The global average temperature was fourth warmest on record for December-February.
Based on preliminary data, NOAA reports that the average temperature for the contiguous United States this winter was 35.9 (2.2 degrees C), which was 2.8 degrees F (1.6 degrees C) above the 1895-2004 mean. The mean temperature in 39 states was above average. No state was cooler than average during the winter. Alaska was warmer than average with a statewide temperature of 4.0 degrees F (2.2 degrees C) above the 1971-2000 mean, ranking fifteenth warmest since statewide records began in 1918. Despite several cold outbreaks in the Northeast, the relatively warm winter season nationwide led to below-normal heating degree days and below-average residential energy demand for the country, as measured by the nation's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.
Winter precipitation was near average for the nation overall, with unusually dry conditions in the Northwest, parts of the northern Plains and the Southeast countering above average wetness from the Southwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Beginning in autumn 2004, a series of Pacific storms brought above average, and in some cases, record precipitation to the Southwest. Downtown Los Angeles had 29.1 inches of rain during the winter, exceeding the normal winter rainfall by more than 20 inches. Record precipitation for the water-year to date (Oct. - Feb.) was recorded at stations across parts of the Southwest, especially in Utah. The above average precipitation also led to recovery in reservoir levels for the Southwest. In Arizona, statewide reservoir levels were above average on March 1, the first time since 2001 the winter season ended with average or above average reservoir levels.
At the end of winter, moderate-extreme drought (as defined by a widely used measure of drought—the Palmer Drought Index) affected 72 percent of the Pacific Northwest (Wash., Ore., Idaho).
While rain fell along the southern California coast during the winter, snow fell in the Sierra Nevada and mountainous Southwest. Snowpack was more than 150 percent of average in the southern Sierras and across parts of southern Nevada and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona also had widespread above average snowpack as of March 1. Contrasting the above average snowfall in the Southwest was a lack of snow in Northwest. Less than 25 percent of average March 1 snowpack existed in the western half of Washington and Oregon and widespread areas with less than 70 percent of average snowpack were evident across most of the Northwest.
For details see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/feb/feb05.html
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NASA Study Finds Soot May be Changing the Arctic Environment
NASA continues to explore the impact of black carbon or soot on the Earth's climate. NASA uses satellite data and computer models that recreate the climate. New findings show soot may be contributing to changes happening near the North Pole, such as accelerating melting of sea ice and snow and changing atmospheric temperatures.
Dorothy Koch of Columbia University, New York, and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, and James Hansen of NASA GISS are co-authors of the study that appeared in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.
The Arctic is especially susceptible to the impact of human-generated particles and other pollution. In recent years the Arctic has significantly warmed, and sea-ice cover and glacial snow have diminished. Likely causes for these trends include changing weather patterns and the effects of pollution. Black carbon has been implicated as playing a role in melting ice and snow. When soot falls on ice, it darkens the surface and accelerates melting by increasing absorbed sunlight. Airborne soot also warms the air and affects weather patterns and clouds.
Koch and Hansen’s results suggest a possible mechanism behind the satellite-derived observations of Arctic climate change. They found the timing and location of Arctic warming and sea ice loss in the late 20th century are consistent with a significant contribution from man-made tiny particles of pollution, or aerosols.
Koch and Hansen used GISS' General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the origins of Arctic soot by isolating various source regions and types. The GCM employs a lot of different data gathered by NASA and other U.S. satellites to study many environmental factors such as ice cover and temperature.
The research found in the atmosphere over the Arctic, about one-third of the soot comes from South Asia, one-third from burning biomass or vegetation around the world, and the remainder from Russia, Europe and North America.
South Asia is estimated to have the largest industrial soot emissions in the world, and the meteorology in that region readily lofts pollution into the upper atmosphere where it is transported to the North Pole. Meanwhile, the pollution from Europe and Russia travels closer to the surface.
For more information and images related to this story on the Internet, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/arctic_soot.html
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Climate Change Inevitable in 21st Century Sea Level Rise To Outpace Temperature Increase
Even if all greenhouse gases had been stabilized in the year 2000, we would still be committed to a warmer Earth and greater sea level rise in the present century, according to a new study by a team of climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings are published in this March 14 issue of the journal Science.
The modeling study quantifies the relative rates of sea level rise and global temperature increase that we are already committed to in the 21st century. Even if no more greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere, globally averaged surface air temperatures would rise about a half degree Celsius (one degree Fahrenheit) and global sea levels would rise another 11 centimeters (4 inches) from thermal expansion alone by 2100.
For full press release and accompanying visual on the Web at http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases.
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U.S. Exports Nitrogen Pollution Beyond Its Borders, Europe’s Nitrogen Deposited Close to Sources
The United States exports nitrogen pollution beyond its borders, and some of this nitrogen may end up in Western Europe, according to a recent data analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of New Hampshire. Most of the nitrogen pollution produced in Western Europe is deposited within its own boundaries, the authors found. The findings are an important step in quantifying total U.S. pollution export for policy makers. The study was published in the February issue of the journal Ecological Applications.
The authors caution that their results are only estimates. The data were gathered from an observation network originally set up to measure the effects of acid rain on rural and remote regions. The sparsely scattered U.S. sites, situated far from cities, may be under-measuring nitrogen deposition from urban emissions, they say.
The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, NASA, and Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry. NCAR’s primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation.
Find the complete press release and images on the Web at
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases
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